Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. is a Naples, FL and Newport, RI based financial advisory firm. We have been ranked by Barron’s as one of the top independent financial advisors in the nation for the last eight consecutive years. We manage portfolios for individuals, families, and small businesses throughout the United States.
Today, investors are facing an unusually uncertain environment. We have a polarizing U.S. election whose outcome could have profound implications for the country and financial markets. The U.S. economy is far from robust and, in our estimation, is in the late stages of the cycle. Geopolitically, there is a broadening quagmire in the Middle East, coupled with increased hostilities with Russia, China, and now the Philippines.
Jack Bogle did not invent the mutual fund, but he certainly turned the industry on its back. In 1974 Bogle founded the Vanguard Group based on his conviction that an investment company should first and foremost manage in a way that serves the best interest of the individual and seeks to avoid conflicts of interest. Bogle spearheaded changes within the mutual fund industry, allowing investors the option of creating a diversified portfolio without the traditional sales loads, 12b-1 fees, and high annual expense ratios that dominated the industry.
One of the most profitable investing moves of 2016 involved no research, no trading and actually no work at all. While it now seems like a distant memory, you may recall the nosedive that stocks took to begin the year. Just 10 trading days into January, U.S. stock markets recorded their worst start to a year on record. Making matters worse, the bad days did not end quickly. Stocks continued lower into the first part of February. An Economistarticle asked, “Is this really 2008 all over again?”
In a surprise vote on June 23, the British decided by a 52% to 48% margin to leave the European Union (EU). The vote caught many investors and pundits off-guard. Financial markets cratered on the news, with U.K. stocks falling 16%, euro-area shares dropping 13%, and stocks in the U.S. slipping 5.3%. The British pound fell over 13%, and government bond yields hit new lows. In the U.S., 10-year Treasury yields dropped to 1.36%—the lowest level in history.
From the time he took over the Windsor Fund in 1964 until his retirement in October 1995, John Neff delivered to his shareholders one of the most impressive returns in mutual fund history. Over Neff’s 31-year tenure at the helm of the Windsor Fund, a $10,000 investment grew to over $564,000. That same $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 would have grown to only $233,000—the average annual return difference between Windsor and the S&P 500 was only about 3% per year; but compounded over three decades, it resulted in an extra $331,000 of wealth.
One of gold’s basic roles in an investment portfolio is to hedge against inflation risk. Inflation is a destructive force that can decimate a lifetime’s worth of savings. Over the last 30 years, inflation has eroded the purchasing power of the dollar by nearly 56%. And this has been a period of modest inflation. When factoring in a period of high inflation, the math looks much worse. Since the 1970s, the purchasing power of the dollar is down an astonishing 84%.
Investing in stocks for the long run has become the accepted wisdom of many investors over recent decades. The media, pundits, and promoters, as well as many brokers and advisors, recommend stocks as the most suitable asset class for investing over the long run. Stocks win over the long run, cash is trash, and bonds are boring, investors are told. The bull markets of the 80s and 90s surely greased the wheels of the “stocks for the long run” band wagon. Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at Wharton School of Business, even wrote a book on the subject.
Small company U.S. stocks have officially entered bear-market territory. The small-company Russell 2000 Index has fallen 26% from its bull-market high. And as of early February, the MSCI All-Country World Index—the gold standard of global stock market indices—crossed into bear country. Emerging market stocks have long been in a bear market, and foreign-developed world equities arrived in bear territory in January.
For many investors, 2015 was a challenging year. The S&P 500 managed to eke out a positive total return, but it was a handful of stocks (many of the more speculative variety) that carried the market. The average U.S. stock was down more than 4% last year. Take away Amazon, Netflix, Google, and Facebook and the S&P 500 would have finished in the red.
NAPLES, FL
5150 Tamiami Trail North, Suite 400
Naples, FL 34103
Phone: (888) 456-5444 Fax: (239) 213-0770
NEWPORT, RI
98 William Street
Newport, RI 02840
Phone: (800) 843-7273 Fax: (401) 849-0002
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